Description

Technology advancement is critical, but it is not the only essential ingredient for the success of AUKUS Pillar II. Without progress on two unheralded ‘functional’ areas – information sharing and innovation – which underpin the technological areas of Pillar II, as well as trilateral coordination across the board, long-term success will remain elusive. Almost two and a half years on from the initial announcement of AUKUS, the first significant shift of focus from Australia's planned acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines came in the form of a joint statement from the AUKUS Defence Ministers Meeting in December 2023. The announcement represented a more substantial focus on Pillar II and evidenced some progress, albeit incremental, in operationalising some of the advanced capabilities. The 1 December announcements largely centred on the six technological areas – AI and autonomy, advanced cyber, quantum, undersea capabilities, electronic warfare, and hypersonics and counter-hypersonic capabilities – including new exercises and initiatives. Some included bundling existing programs into the AUKUS banner, such as the Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability, which started in 2017 and had locations pencilled in for Australia, the United Kingdom and United States before AUKUS was launched.

Summary

The article critiques the progress of AUKUS Pillar II, emphasizing the need for advancements beyond technology, specifically in information sharing and innovation for trilateral coordination. It outlines recent announcements by AUKUS focusing on AI, cyber capabilities, quantum technologies, and other frontier areas, suggesting these developments are crucial yet insufficient without addressing foundational functional areas. The piece discusses the integration of existing programs like the Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability under AUKUS, hinting at Australia's strategic positioning in advanced capabilities. The implications for global AI safety governance and policy, particularly in defense and trilateral cooperation, are significant given the scale and technological focus of AUKUS.

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