Home/News/Market Wraps/ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 29th OctoberMarket WrapsMARKET WRAPSNews | Market WrapsASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 29th OctoberThe S&P/ASX 200 is set to open slightly higher despite a relatively mixed overnight lead. Here are today's top stories.Kerry SunContent StrategistWed 29 Oct 2025, 08:33 AEDT∙UPDATEDWed 29 Oct 2025, 14:00 AEDT∙15 min readSharePrint ArticleWelcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, October 29. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — andlet us know how we can make it even better.ASX 200 dips to two-week low[2:00 pm]A pretty heavy session, with the S&P/ASX 200 currently down 0.90%, at intraday lows. Breadth isn't terrible, with only 59% (117) stocks trading lower as miners bounce and defensives like Staples, Energy and Utilities edge higher.ASX 200 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)A rather ominous inflation print, featuring a perfect storm of pain:Trimmed mean inflation up 3.0% year-on-year, now at the upper bound of the RBA's 2-3% targetElectricity costs (up 9.0% QoQ) was the main driver of inflation, which then drives up the cost of ... everything elseNovember rate cut expectations have now fallen to ~11% vs. 40% before the CPI print and ~70% two weeks agoThe most recent Australian employment data flagged employment growth of ~1.3% year-on-year vs. ~2.0% population growth rate, which is largely driven by migrationAUB takeover thoughts[12:47 am]AUB shares have rallied 18% in the last two sessions, after the company confirmed it received a non-binding takeover offer from EQT at $45.00 per share. Here's what analysts are thinking:Morgan Stanleymaintained Overweight, raised target from $39.00 to $45.00. Sees multiple growth levers for FY26, views the bid as strategically valuable, and expects long-term market share momentum.Jardenmaintained Overweight, raised target from $38.20 to $40.20. Notes the bid premium is in line with precedent but flags EQT’s inconsistent track record in Australian deals.JPMorganmaintained Overweight, raised target from $38.00 to $42.00. Believes the valuation premium is reasonable, sees potential for competing bids, and remains confident in broker earnings through soft cycles.Golden Dragon, Right Resources debut[12:36 pm]Two explorers debuted earlier today, including:Golden Dragon (ASX: GDR) is a gold and critical metals explorer. Flagship Cue Project in North Murchison, Western Australia located near some high-profile names like Meeka Metals and Westgold's Bluebird Project. The stock is currently trading at 22.5 cents vs. the IPO offer price of 20 cents.Right Resources (ASX: RRE) is a gold copper explorer, holding a tenement portfolio of 2,089km2 across the Tumbarumba and New England regions of NSW. The stock is currently trading at 17.5 cents vs. the IPO offer price of 20 cents.Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia hit market cap milestones[12:20 pm]Moving away from Australian inflation for a moment, the world's biggest public companies are making stock market history.Nvidia is on the cusp of becoming the first company to hit a US$5 trillion market cap after surging almost 5% overnight. It's currently at US$4.89 trillion and a decent chance at hit that milestone when US markets next open.Microsoft also joined it in the US$4 trillion club, passing that mark overnight, with Apple hot on its heels at US$3.99 trillion.It means those 3 companies are now more valuable than the entirety of the S&P 500 was at the peak of the Dot-com bubble (ignoring inflation).By Tom StelzerMarkets give 11% chance of RBA rate cut in November[12:03 pm]Following today's hot inflation print, money markets are now pricing in only an 11% chance of a cut at next month's RBA meeting.That's down from around a 40% chance before today's CPI data dropped, and around a 70% chance after last week's weak employment data.By Tom StelzerAUD, bond yields up on inflation news[11:54 am]Unexpectedly high inflation has unsurprisingly sent the Australian dollar higher as markets downgrade the odds of an RBA rate cut at next month's meeting.The Aussie dollar hit US$0.66 for the first time since early October and 10-year Australian government bonds jumped to 4.227%.By Tom StelzerASX 200 dips[11:35 am]ASX 200 was trading down around 0.2% heading into the CPI print, now down around 0.5%. Financials down sharply (-1.0%), Real Estate (-0.57%) also taking a hit as yield spike and November rate cut expectations evaporate (already quite low to begin with).ASX 200 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)Australia CPI accelerates[11:30 am]Australia's monthly CPI was broadly hotter-than-expected, driving a sharp pullback for local equities.Q3 inflation up 1.3% vs. 0.7% in the prior quarter and 1.1% consensusSeptember inflation up 3.5% year-on-year vs. 3.0% in the prior month and 3.1% consensusRBA trimmed mean inflation up 3.0% year-on-year vs. prior month and consensus of 2.7%"The CPI rose 1.3 per cent in the September 2025 quarter, which is the highest quarterly rise since March 2023. The largest contributor to this quarterly movement was Electricity costs, which rose by 9.0 per cent," said Michelle Marquardt, ABS Head of Price Statistics.This marks the highest annual inflation print since the June 2024 quarterSource: ABSAnalysts' take on CSL[10:34 am]No surprises here. Analysts have all trimmed their target prices but continue to glaze CSL. Here's some of the commentary I've seen today.Jardenmaintained Overweight, lowered target from $304.1 to $287.1. Sees Seqirus’ decline as structurally concerning but views valuation as offering medium-term upside after a sharp reaction to the downgrade.Morgan Stanleymaintained Overweight, lowered target from $285.00 to $248.00. Cites flu-related weakness and a delay in the Seqirus demerger as drags, but remains positive on immunoglobulin and long-term growth potential.RBCmaintained Sector Perform, lowered target from $280.00 to $189.00. Views the downgrade as disappointing and reflects higher risk around Behring’s growth outlook, with current valuation seen as fair.For perspective, this is what analysts said after the FY25 result (where the stock fell 16.8% after a relatively low quality result and weak FY26 guidance).Goldman Sachsmaintained Buy, lowered target from $333.60 to $311.00. Sees the weak FY25 result and Behring guidance removal as setbacks but views IG pricing pressure as cyclical and ongoing R&D investment as supporting long-term growth.JPMorganmaintained Overweight, lowered target from $305.00 to $282.00. Highlights delayed cost-saving benefits and Behring weakness but sees underlying Ig demand and limited market share losses as positives amid near-term uncertainty.RBCmaintained Sector Perform, lowered target from $283.00 to $280.00. Says FY25 result quality was weak and questions Behring’s growth balance, viewing cost initiatives and the Seqirus demerger as significant but not enough to offset low growth.Nick Scali at all-time highs[10:29 am]Massive morning drive for Nick Scali, shares opened 4.4% higher, now up 10.80%.The company provided 1H26 guidance at its AGM, including statutory NPAT between $33-35 million vs. $31.9 million consensus (6.5% beat).Same store written sales orders for the first quarter of FY26 up 11.6% year-on-year, and sales revenue up 6%.Overall, above consensus NPAT, refurbishments in the UK now complete and solid sales momentum.Ansell rallies on FY26 guidance upgrade[10:22 am]Ansell opened 3.8% higher, currently up 6.1% after upgrading its FY26 guidance this morning.FY26 adjusted EPS upgraded to $1.37-1.49 vs. prior guidance of $1.33-1.45 (2.9% upgrade at the midpoint) and $1.39 consensus (also 2.9% upgrade at the midpoint)CSL falls for a second day[10:17 am]CSL is down 3.6% ($171.44) in early trade, now down almost 20% in the last two sessions to the lowest level since March 2019.On Tuesday, the company cut its FY26 NPATA growth guidance to 4-7% vs. prior 7-10% (provided at its FY25 result). Revenue guidance also cut to 2-3% vs. prior 4.5%.The company also said uncertainty in US vaccination rates reduces group NPATA growth expectation to high single digits in FY27-28. For perspective, Macquarie (Aug-25) forecast FY27 NPATA growth of 10.8%.It'll be interesting to see if it can muster up a bounce. Although momentum/confidence is clearly dead in the water.Uranium stocks surge[10:13 am]Uranium stocks broadly higher on the Westinghouse/US government deal.TickerCompany% ChgPriceBOEBoss Energy14.47%$1.82TOEToro Energy12.94%$0.48PDNPaladin Energy12.19%$9.02PENPeninsula Energy11.61%$0.63BMNBannerman Energy10.36%$3.41DYLDeep Yellow9.87%$1.73DEVDevex Resources9.09%$0.12NXGNexgen8.99%$14.06AGEAlligator Energy8.70%$0.03LOTLotus Resources8.57%$0.19EL8Elevate Uranium8.33%$0.39AEEAura Energy7.69%$0.21Watch uranium stocks[9:56 am]Uranium stocks like Boss and Paladin Energy are set to rally this morning. Overnight, the Trump administration announced plans to invest over $80 billion to purchase nuclear reactors from Westinghouse Electric as part of a strategy to revive domestic nuclear development.The US will act as initial buyer for multiple Westinghouse reactors, enabling project development to begin including long-lead component orders. The investment structure could eventually give the US an approximately 8% stake in Westinghouse once certain profit conditions are met, with a potential IPO down the track.Shares in Cameco surged 23% on the news (as it owns 49% of Westinghouse).Various US-listed uranium names like Denison Mines, Uranium Energy Corp and Uranium Royalty Corp all rallied 5-20% overnight.Aeris Resources halted[9:45 am]Aeris Resources was just halted, pending a capital raising announcement. Shares in the mid-tier copper producer have rallied around 150% since mid-August. It wouldn't be surprising to see more of these copper/lithium/rare earth stocks tap the market following recent gains.Boss Energy: Q1 production report[9:40 am]Boss Energy drummed a record 385,910 lbs of uranium from its Honeymoon Project in the September quarter, up 11% vs. the June quarter. This figure is also 2.0% ahead of 378,300 lbs consensus.The average realised price was A$114.3/lb (US$74.7/lb) while C1 costs were A$34/lb (US$22/lb). Management said the project is "tracking favourably" against cost and all-in sustaining cost guidance.Boss' 30% owned Atla Mesa Uranium Operation also dropped 206,231 lbs (100% basis), with Boss receiving 45,102 lbs.The Honeymoon Review remains a priority, and on track for completion in the December quarter 2025.For context, Boss shares fell as much as 45% on Monday, 28 July, after the company flagged structurally weaker outlook with higher-than-expected costs and capital spending. Poor continuity and leachability at East Kalkaroo undermined earlier feasibility assumptions, with analysts noting the need for additional wells and higher sustaining capex.Company page: Boss Energy (BOE)L1 Group halted, pending equity raise announcement[9:34 am]The newly merged L1-Platinum Asset Management is seeking to raise approximately $300 million at 95 cents per share (7.7% discount to last close of $1.03), according to the AFR.Company page: L1 Group (L1G)Woolworths: Q1 trading update[9:30 am]A high profile update to watch this morning, especially considering how bad Woolworths was smashed during August reporting season (down 14.6% on results, currently trading around the lowest since June 2020).The key numbers from today's 1Q26 update include:Group sales up 2.7% to $18.5bnAustralian Food sales up 2.1%, with Woolworths Food Retail (ex-tobacco) up 3.8%Improved momentum in Woolworths Food Retail in 2Q26, with sales to date up 5.0% (ex-tobacco)"Looking ahead, we are cautiously optimistic about our key trading quarter ... it will take some time for the full benefits of strategic actions to be realised."Average prices (ex-tobacco) down 0.3% year-on-year, marking seventh consecutive quarter of lower pricesAt a glance, a decent update, with Group sales tracking ~1.1% ahead of consensus ($18.28bn) and commentary/growth for 2Q26 also solid.Company page: Woolworths (WOW)Capricorn Metals: Q1 production report[9:21 am]Capricorn Metals' Karlawinda Gold Project produced 32,318 ounces of gold in the September quarter, in-line with preliminary guidance.The quarterly all-in sustaining cost of $1,625/oz is in-line with $1,626/oz consensus.Capricorn reaffirmed KGP's FY26 guidance, including 115-125koz at an AISC of $1,530-1,630/oz.Company page: Capricorn Metals (CMM)Ansell upgrades FY26 guidance at AGM[9:16 am]Annsell says sales are tracking well year-to-date and performance in the US is in-line with expectations.Margins are up vs. the prior year, supported by favourable foreign exchange and expected benefits from lower freight costs, incremental KBU synergies and manufacturing productivity initiativesFY26 adjusted EPS upgraded to $1.37-1.49 vs. prior guidance of $1.33-1.45 (2.9% upgrade at the midpoint) and $1.39 consensus (also 2.9% upgrade at the midpoint)On-market share buyback active, targeting $200m repurchases in FY26, with $29m completed year-to-dateAnnsell shares have been trading mostly sideways since its FY25 result on August, where the stock rallied 10.2% on better-than-expected numbers and guidance. It'll be interesting to see if the stock can break above the recent high.Company page: Ansell (ANN)Lynas announces expanded heavy rare earth separation facility[9:12 am]Lynas Rare Earths is building a new Heavy Rare Earth separation facility in Malaysia to capitalise on strong demand for non-Chinese rare earth supply.The facility will process up to 5,000 tonnes per annum of HRE feedstock at a cost of approximately $180 million, funded from the September 2025 equity raising. Lynas is the only company outside China with proven commercial-scale HRE oxide production capability.Feedstock will come from Lynas' Mt Weld deposit in Australia and potential future Malaysian ionic clay sources. The phased construction approach prioritises key products, with first Samarium production expected by April 2026 and full initial capacity operational within two years. The company is currently negotiating offtake agreements with partners.Initial production will include six separated rare earths:Samarium (first product, April 2026)GadoliniumDysprosium (already produced)Terbium (already produced)YttriumLutetiumAdditional rare earths including Europium, Holmium, Ytterbium and Erbium may be added if commercial agreements justify the investment. Timeline remains subject to regulatory approvals.Company page: Lynas (LYC)Cedar Woods upgrades FY26 guidance[9:07 am]Australian property development company, Cedar Woods, provides the following updates for 1Q26:FY26 NPAT guidance upgraded to approximately 15% vs. prior 10%Record presales of more than $763 million at end of 1Q26, up 36% year-on-yearPositive momentum in sales driven by both good volumes and price growth as the company releases new stages and projects into a significantly undersupplied housing marketWell positioned to continue acquiring new projects, supported by strong balance sheet with low gearing and significant undrawn finance facilities availableCedar appears to be in the midst of an upgrade cycle. Ahead of its FY25 results in August, the company lifted guidance in April to around 15% growth. The stock jumped 7.0% on the day (30 April) and climbed as much as 17% over the following three sessions.Company page: Cedar Woods (CWP)Medibank outlines FY30 targets[9:04 am]An investor presentation highlighted FY30 aspirations:Medibank's Health division will generate at least $200 million in earningsThe company aims to capture at least 26.8% of the Australian private health insurance marketMedibank plans to grow its health and wellbeing customer engagement from around 5 million to 10 million peopleCompany page: Medibank (MPL)Domino's denies takeover speculation, focused on turnaround[9:00 am]An AFR article pumped Domino's shares up as much as 23% on Tuesday, citing speculation that Bain was considering a takeover offer valued at over $4 billion.The company later confirmed it did not receive any proposal or communication from Bain, closing the session up just 7.2%.Executive chairman and 26% stakeholder Jack Cowin, became interim CEO earlier this year to lead the turnaround.The company has closed 312 stores (mostly in Japan) over the past year and booked $121 million in restructuring costs. Performance has been weak across key markets including Japan, France, Australia and New Zealand. Cowin told the AFR the share price is undervalued and said he would "maybe" consider the right deal in future, but stressed the focus is on the turnaround after just four months in the role.Source:AFRPickup in M&A activity[8:57 am]A very busy past 24 hrs, with a pickup in M&A activity forming part of the bullish narrative for equities. The key deals include:Skyworks acquiring Qorvo for $9.8 billion in cash and stock, combining two major Apple suppliersAmerican Water Works and Essential Utilities forming a utilities company with $63 billion enterprise valueHuntington Bancshares acquiring Cadence Bank for $7.4 billion in all-stock regional bank consolidationNovartis buying Avidity Bioscience for $11 billion enterprise value in biopharma sectorArafura launches $475 million placement[8:53 am]Arafura released the details of its capital raise at 4:00 pm on Tuesday, revealing a $475 million two-tranche institutional placement priced at 28 cents per share (~26% discount to last close of 38 cents).The company's largest shareholder, Hancock, plans to subscribe $125 million, lifting its stake to 15.7% post-placement.Combined with conditionally approved debt and proposed cornerstone equity investments, Arafura says it will have de-risked the total funding required for the development of the Nolan's Project.The 28 cent placement price is 54% below its recent high of 62 cents on 21 October.Company page: Arafura (ARU)Nvidia GTC conference highlights[8:51 am]Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced at the company's Washington GTC conference that the Blackwell and Rubin AI chips are projected to generate $500 billion in revenue through 2026. The company expects to ship 20 million units of its latest chips, a massive increase from the 4 million Hopper units shipped over that chip's entire lifetime.Nvidia shares rallied 4.9% to a record $201.03 following the presentation, with Huang dismissing AI bubble concerns by pointing to actual customer willingness to pay for AI services.The company unveiled major partnerships aimed at diversifying its customer base beyond core data center clients like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. Key deals include:Uber collaboration for 100,000 self-driving vehicles with Stellantis as initial automaker partner$1 billion Nokia investment supporting their AI pivotCrowdStrike cybersecurity AI agent developmentEli Lilly supercomputer with 1,000+ Blackwell chips€1 billion German data center with Deutsche TelekomUS markets higher, breadth weak[8:49 am]A rather weak overnight session despite the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq marking fresh all-time highs.US sector performance (Source: Bloomberg)Good morning![8:35 am]ASX 200 futures are up 11pts (+0.12%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.. The overnight session in a nutshell:S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq closed at yet another fresh all-time highBreadth was negative, with defensive sectors sharply lower and the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.86%) underperforming the official benchmark by over 100 bpsTech-heavy US market encouraged by Nvidia's GTC conference updates and pickup in M&A (over US$80 billion of deals announced on Tuesday)If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick viatoday’s Morning Wrap.ABOUT THE AUTHORKerry SunContent StrategistKerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai.Printed30/10/2025