2024 Geopolitical Calendar for a World Near the Brink
The Strategist
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- Date Published
- 16 Jan 2024
- Priority Score
- 2
- Australian
- Yes
- Created
- 8 Mar 2025, 02:41 pm
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This looks to be a year when we hold our breath and hope the world doesn’t come undone. Here’s a guide to some of the summits, events, announcements and key dates to watch out for ...
Summary
The article outlines the major geopolitical events and key dates in 2024, highlighting potential international tensions and their implications. It provides insights into elections, summits, and strategic meetings around the world, including those focusing on AI safety and security. Though the article mentions the global AI safety summit in France, its overall focus is on geopolitical stability rather than deep AI risk analysis. The content is relevant for understanding how geopolitical decisions and alignments could impact global AI governance and safety policy, but it lacks an in-depth examination of catastrophic AI risks or existential safety measures.
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SHAREShare to FacebookShare to TwitterShare to LinkedInShare to EmailPrint This PostWith ImagesWithout ImagesThis looks to be a year when we hold our breath and hope the world doesn’t come undone. Here’s a guide to some of the summits, events, announcements and key dates to watch out for as we navigate the next 12 months.JanuaryAs voters in Taiwan, a nation of23 million people,elected their next president, China was quick to declare the election a matter of‘war or peace’. That pressureintensifiedwhen front runner Lai Ching-te was elected. There will be more to come from Beijing.The 120 member states gather in Uganda for the19thSummit of the Non-Aligned Movementfrom 15-20 January. TheThird South Summit of the G77+China,with 134 member states, will also meet in Uganda from 21-22 January.From 15 to 19 January, global leaders and business elites gather in Davos, Switzerland for theWorld Economic Forum.Tuvalu holds its general election on 26 January with opposition leader and former prime minister Enele Sopaga promising tothrow awaythe Australia–Tuvalu falepili union agreement if he is elected.Finland’spresidential electiontakes place on 28 January as Russiascales up its hybrid activitiesto exert pressure on the Finns.FebruaryAustralia’s parliamentary sitting yearbegins on 6 February.On 8 February, the US Supreme Courtwill considerwhether US states can disqualify Donald Trump from the presidential ballot due to his attempts to overturn the 2020 election result and his role in the 6 January insurrection. Here’s alist of Trump’s other criminal and civil casesfor 2024.On 8 February Pakistan will vote in an electiondominated by the militaryestablishment.From 9 to 10 February, Australia will host theIndian Ocean Conferencein Perth.Indonesia holds itspresidential electionon 14 February, with the front runner Prabowo Subianto who hasfaced allegations of human rights abuses. The former general was the son-in-law of long time president Suharto. His vice presidential running mate is Gibran Rakabuming, son of current president Joko Widodo. Some have raised concerns that the election campaign bears signs ofweakening democracy.TheMunich security conferencefrom 16–18 of February brings together international leaders and experts in Europe to discuss pressing security challenges.From 21 to 23 February, the Observer Research Foundation convenes the annualRaisina Dialoguein New Delhi.It’s the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, with no end to the conflict in sight.NATO stages itsbiggest military exercisesince the Cold War in February and March. Steadfast Defender—Europe 24 will involve more than 30 countries and 40,000 troops. The exercise will take place across Germany, Poland and Baltic nations and will focus on readiness and interoperability in response to a Russian invasion.Australiawill hostthe AUKMIN talks in 2024. Dates haven’t yet been announced, but last year it was held in February. With an election due in the UK, it’s likely to be earlier in the year again.MarchIran will hold elections on 1 March, the first since widespread protests erupted in 2022. Theregime is expected to consolidate controlwith a low turnout likely.The 50th anniversary of Australian–ASEAN relations will be marked from 4–6 March with aspecial summitin Melbourne. Leaders from across Southeast Asia have been invited and here’sa rundownof the issues likely to be discussed.On 5 March, it’s Super Tuesday, a critical day in the US presidential primary season withmultiple states holding primary electionsto choose delegates.South Korea’s presidential election, on 10 March, looks being atight race. The republic is also scheduled to host the second global AI safety summitaround March/April.Russia’s presidential election is scheduled for 17 March. In this case, the‘tight race’will be between Putin and … Putin.Ukraine was due to have a presidential election on 31 March, but Volodymyr Zelenskyannouncedthat the poll could not proceed because of the war with Russia and the ongoing state of emergency.AprilIndia’s general election campaign will run through April and May. Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is widely expected to win despite concerns that hehas cracked down on political opponents and consolidatedpower since 2014.From 19 to 21 April, theannual spring meetingsof the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington will bring together finance ministers and central bank governors to discuss global economic challenges.MayAustralia’s budget is likely to be released on 15 May. The promisednational defence strategymay be made public at the same time.Taiwan’s new president will beinauguratedon 20 May. Expect a reaction from China.The International Institute for Strategic Studies will convene its annualShangri-La Dialoguefrom 31 May to 2 June in Singapore.JuneThe80th anniversary of the D-Day landings and the Battle of Normandywill be commemorated on 6 June.From 6 to 9 June, voters across the European Union willcast their ballotsto choose the next members of the European Parliament. There are concerns that morefar right candidateswill win seats for the five year term.Italy will host the G7 summit from the 13 to 15 June, focusing onpressing global issueslike AI, climate change, food security and economic recovery.JulyCelebrating the 75th anniversary of NATO, leaders will convene in Washington DC for their annual summit from9 to 11 July.From 15–18 the US Republican party will meet to chose its presidential nominee at itsnational convention.Exercise Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC), the world’s largest maritime military exercise,will be held in late July. Australia, the UK and USare also scheduled toconduct joint maritime drone exercises, maybe off the back of RIMPAC.From 15 July to 1 August, The Royal Australian Air Force will hostExercise Pitch Blackin Northern Australia with many nations participating.The 31st ASEAN Regional Forum will be held in Laos (the 2024 ASEAN chair) from 21–27 July. A list of ASEAN meetings in 2024can be found here.Kazakhstanwill hostthe 2024 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s annual summit in Astana before its chairmanship ends in July 2024.AugustTonga will host the53rd Pacific Islands Forumin August.On 15 August it will be three years since the withdrawal of US and Western forces from Afghanistan which was soon followed by the Afghan government’s fall and the Taliban takeover.The US Democratic Party will hold itsNational Conventionin Chicago from 19 to 22 August.SeptemberThe 79th session of the UN General Assembly begins on 10 September, with the first high-level general debate on 24 September. The UN’sSummit of the Futurewill be held on 22 and 23 September, aiming to forge a new global consensus and multilateral solutions to current and future problems.OctoberThe 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China will be marked on 1 October amid increasing economic troubles. The anniversary will bea major focusof Xi Jinping this year,The 75th anniversary of Russia–China diplomatic relations will be marked on 2 October when it’s likely the ‘no limits’ friendship will be taken tonew heights. In October, Russia will also host thelargest-ever BRICS summit, the first with new members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia.The first anniversary of Hamas’s attack on Israel and the resulting conflict in Gaza will be marked on 7 October.The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) will beheld in Samoaon 21 October, the first with King Charles as head.NovemberOn 5 November, all eyes will be on the US presidential election.From 11–24 November, Azerbaijan will host COP29. It is already following in the UAE’s footsteps, byappointing an oil executiveto lead the climate talks.On 12 November, Palau will hold itsgeneral election.Brazil will hostthe G20 Summitfrom 17 to 18 November in Rio de Janeiro.The ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summit dates for this year have not yet been announced, but normally fall in November. The ASEAN Defence Ministers meeting will run from26 to 29in Laos.Peru is hosting the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in 2024, with the leaders’ summit to be heldin November.France is due to host thethird global AI safety summitin November.DecemberGhana’s electiontakes place on 7 December.AlgeriaandCroatiaare due for presidential elections with dates yet to be set.Other significant eventsLast year Prime Minister Anthony Albanesecommissioned an independent review of Australia’s intelligence agencies. The findings will be presented to government in mid-2024.Indo-Pacific Endeavour, the Australian Defence Forces’ annual regional engagement exercise, is likely to take place, as usual, in the second half of the year.UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hasconfirmedhe’ll call a general election in the second half of 2024.The Quad Leaders’ Summit, which was to be held in January in India, hasbeen postponed to late 2024with a new date yet to be set. Quad foreign ministers will meet in Japan in 2024 on dates which are also still to be announced.For a full list of the global elections scheduled in 2024,click here.