This US AI Champion’s Stock Is Too Cheap to Ignore
Morningstar
ENRICHED
Details
- Date Published
- 19 June 2026
- Priority Score
- 1
- Australian
- Yes
- Created
- 19 June 2026, 04:00 am
Description
Even as competition looks likely to build, the company remains a leading wide-moat business securely at the center of the AI ecosystem.
Summary
This article analyzes Nvidia's dominant market position and future growth prospects within the global AI infrastructure ecosystem. It highlights the 'once-in-a-century' buildup of AI capabilities and the critical role of hardware like GPUs and networking interconnects in supporting frontier models such as Google Gemini and Anthropic. While primarily a financial analysis, the content underscores the massive scale of compute resources being deployed, which is a key driver of both frontier AI capabilities and the associated safety and governance challenges. The report evaluates the long-term competition in AI chipsets, suggesting that Nvidia will remain a central pillar of the infrastructure required for the most advanced AI systems through 2030.
Body
This US AI champion’s stock is too cheap to ignore Even as competition looks likely to build, the company remains a leading wide-moat business securely at the center of the AI ecosystem.Brian Colello, CPA19 June 2026 Article Page URL has been copied to clipboard for sharing. Mentioned: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)Key Morningstar metrics for NvidiaFair Value Estimate: $280.00Morningstar Rating: ★★★★Morningstar Moat Rating: WideMorningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very HighNvidia updateThe once-in-a-century artificial intelligence buildout has sent Nvidia on a three-year run to emerge as the first $5 trillion-plus company based on market capitalization. Yet we think the firm is worth significantly more than that today. Nvidia remains at the heart of the AI ecosystem; we don’t foresee a slowdown in AI demand, and the company’s leadership position in the AI infrastructure market remains secure. In turn, we believe the market underappreciates its prospects.Nvidia anticipates strong growth for its AI GPU-based systems in both 2026 and 2027, and we see few signs from large customers suggesting that the global AI infrastructure buildout will slow in any meaningful way. For 2028 and beyond, we think the strength of Nvidia’s software ecosystem (Cuda), its chip design expertise, its networking and interconnectivity capability, and the flexibility and programmability offered by all this gear will keep it at the center of the AI ecosystem.In the long term, we think it’s inevitable that Google and AWS will push to bring more chips and AI gear in-house, to Nvidia’s detriment. We expect Nvidia to lose market share to Google’s TPUs and Amazon’s Trainium (especially if Anthropic and/or Google Gemini emerge as dominant frontier models), but we think Nvidia’s share should level out at 68% in 2030 (versus 80% today) within a much larger pie of AI spending.Our $280 per share fair value estimate is underpinned by strong growth over the next two years, an inevitable deceleration to an otherwise “healthy” growth rate in 2028 and beyond as AI and cloud computing workloads grow, all while Nvidia retains pricing power and maintains 70%-plus gross margins. Our bull-case fair value would be $420 per share if Nvidia concedes no market share, resulting in $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. We think $180 is a reasonable downside fair value estimate if the AI market shifts even more toward XPUs, or if AI demand fails to live up to expectations. Newsletterapple newsnews